Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani, and Natalia Tamirisa
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior more in line 'noisy' information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002). While there are cross-country variations in information rigidity, there is no systematic difference between advanced and emerging economies.