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Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2015/226

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , Jonathan Ostry , Atish Ghosh , and Marcos Chamon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513500805.001

ISBN: 9781513500805

Keywords: capital inflows, bonds, bond, return, domestic bonds, All Countries, apital inflows,

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead t...

Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño

Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño »

Volume/Issue: 2015/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 April 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475535495.001

ISBN: 9781475535495

Keywords: El Ni&;amp;#x00F1;o weather shocks, oil and non-fuel commodity prices, global macroeconometric modeling, international business cycle, prices, inflation, variables, gdp, trade, Time-Series Models

This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the...