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Financial Inclusion
			: Can it Meet Multiple Macroeconomic Goals?

Financial Inclusion : Can it Meet Multiple Macroeconomic Goals? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/17

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , Martin Cihak , Papa N'Diaye , Adolfo Barajas , Srobona Mitra , Annette Kyobe , Yen Mooi , and Reza Yousefi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 September 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513585154.006

ISBN: 9781513585154

Keywords: Financial services, Economic growth, Inclusive growth, Household credit, Business enterprises, Financial sector, Income inequality, Gender, Economic stability, Financial stability

Using several recently available global datasets, this Staff Discussion Note examines macroeconomic effects of financial inclusion. It finds significant benefits to economic growth from financial inclusion, but the...

Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño

Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño »

Volume/Issue: 2015/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 April 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475535495.001

ISBN: 9781475535495

Keywords: El Ni&;amp;#x00F1;o weather shocks, oil and non-fuel commodity prices, global macroeconometric modeling, international business cycle, prices, inflation, variables, gdp, trade, Time-Series Models

This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the...

Uncertainty and Unemployment
			: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels

Uncertainty and Unemployment : The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels »

Volume/Issue: 2015/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sangyup Choi , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 February 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498356305.001

ISBN: 9781498356305

Keywords: aggregate uncertainty, sectoral uncertainty, stock market, Great Recession, unemployment rate, labor, labor market, long-term unemployment, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we...

The Effects of U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asia Frontier Developing Economies

The Effects of U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asia Frontier Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2015/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sohrab Rafiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498334037.001

ISBN: 9781498334037

Keywords: unconventional monetary policy, interest rates, exchange rate, international monetary fund, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics,

This paper explores the effect of U.S. unconventional monetary policy (QE2) on a group of frontier developing economies (FDEs) in Asia. This paper finds that spillovers emanating from the U.S. on FDEs in Asia have...

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses »

Volume/Issue: 2015/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vivek Ghosal , and Yang Ye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552515.001

ISBN: 9781475552515

Keywords: uncertainty, small businesses, real-options, financing-constraints, costs, gdp, forecasting, variables, investment, General

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growt...

How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments

How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments »

Volume/Issue: 2014/179

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julio Escolano , Laura Jaramillo , Carlos Mulas-Granados , and G. Terrier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484378861.001

ISBN: 9781484378861

Keywords: Deficit, primary balance, size of adjustment, fiscal adjustments, fiscal consolidations, Structure and Scope of Government,

The sizeable fiscal consolidation required to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratios in several countries in the aftermath of the global crisis raises a crucial question on its feasibility. To answer this question, we re...

Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks

Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks »

Volume/Issue: 2014/70

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rakesh Mohan , and Muneesh Kapur

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 April 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484362518.001

ISBN: 9781484362518

Keywords: coordination, unconventional monetary policy, monetary policies, monetary fund, central bank, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

The unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) pursued by the advanced economies (AEs) have posed macroeconomic challenges for the emerging market economies (EMEs) through volatile capital flows and exchange rates. AE...

Asia's Stock Markets
			: Are There Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons?

Asia's Stock Markets : Are There Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/37

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabian Lipinsky , and Li Lian Ong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484320143.001

ISBN: 9781484320143

Keywords: arbitrage pricing theory, Asian financial crisis, fundamentals, global financial crisis, idiosyncratic factors, integration, IOSCO, securities regulation, stock market, stock pricing

Stock markets play a key role in corporate financing in Asia. However, despite their increasing importance in terms of size and cross-border investment activity, the region's markets are reputed to be more 'idiosyn...

Information Rigidities
			: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Information Rigidities : Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel »

Volume/Issue: 2014/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484305201.001

ISBN: 9781484305201

Keywords: Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, Forecasting and Simulation,

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is s...

The International Monetary System
			: Where Are We and Where Do We Need to Go?

The International Monetary System : Where Are We and Where Do We Need to Go? »

Volume/Issue: 2013/224

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rakesh Mohan , Michael Patra , and Muneesh Kapur

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 November 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475514148.001

ISBN: 9781475514148

Keywords: currency internationalization, capital inflows, capital account liberalization, net capital, net capital flows, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, International Institutional Arrangements,

The North Atlantic financial crisis of 2008-2009 has spurred renewed interest in reforming the international monetary system, which has been malfunctioning in many aspects. Large and volatile capital flows have pro...