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Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses »

Volume/Issue: 2015/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vivek Ghosal , and Yang Ye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552515.001

ISBN: 9781475552515

Keywords: uncertainty, small businesses, real-options, financing-constraints, costs, gdp, forecasting, variables, investment, General

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growt...

Information Rigidities
			: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Information Rigidities : Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel »

Volume/Issue: 2014/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484305201.001

ISBN: 9781484305201

Keywords: Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, Forecasting and Simulation,

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is s...

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts
			: Some Cross-Country Evidence

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455263424.001

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...

Redesigning the Contours of the Future Financial System

Redesigning the Contours of the Future Financial System »

Volume/Issue: 2010/10

Series: IMF Staff Position Notes

Author(s): Laura Kodres , and Aditya Narain

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781462388882.004

ISBN: 9781462388882

Keywords: Bank supervision, Banks, Financial instruments, Financial institutions, Risk management, Multilateral surveillance, Nonbank financial sector, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Fund role, Crises

This paper explores the private- and public-sector responses to the crisis and some of the probable outcomes. Aside from improved supervision of individual institutions, greater emphasis needs to be put on financia...

Competition in the Financial Sector
			: Overview of Competition Policies

Competition in the Financial Sector : Overview of Competition Policies »

Volume/Issue: 2009/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stijn Claessens

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871937.001

ISBN: 9781451871937

Keywords: competition policy, contestability, stability, degree of competition, General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data), General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation, Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation, Market Structure, Firm Strategy, And Market Performance

As in other sectors, competition in finance matters for allocative, productive and dynamic efficiency. Theory suggests, however, that unfettered competition is not first best given the special features of finance....

International Reserves-Too Much of a Zipf's Thing

International Reserves-Too Much of a Zipf's Thing »

Volume/Issue: 2008/11

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mariusz Sumlinski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451868739.001

ISBN: 9781451868739

Keywords: Gibrat&;amp;#x2019;s law, Zipf&;amp;#x2019;s law, statistics, samples, reserve holdings, reserve accumulation

Concentrated distribution of international reserves is puzzling. I show that the growth rates of international reserves bear only a very weak relationship to their initial stocks (scaled by GDP or in absolute terms...

IMF Survey, Volume 35, Issue 21

IMF Survey, Volume 35, Issue 21 »

Volume/Issue: 35/21

Series: IMF Survey

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451968866.023

ISBN: 9781451968866

Keywords: international monetary fund, macroeconomic implications, public debt, fiscal sustainability, Adjustment, Balance Of Power, International Monetary Fund (imf). Quotas, Organizational Change,

John Lipsky's visit to South Africa and Mali, Latin American growth, Uruguay repays loan, Eastern Europe, Albania's economy, Belarus and Morocco, U.S. current account deficit, Francis Warnock, IMF governance, fisca...

How Should Subnational Government Borrowing Be Regulated? Some Cross-Country Empirical Evidence

How Should Subnational Government Borrowing Be Regulated? Some Cross-Country Empirical Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2005/54

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexander Plekhanov , and Raju Singh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451860733.001

ISBN: 9781451860733

Keywords: Fiscal federalism, local government, budget deficit, fiscal discipline, subnational governments, fiscal imbalances, vertical fiscal imbalances, fiscal balances, fiscal balance, State and Local Borrowing,

Countries have adopted various institutional responses to subnational government borrowing. Using a sample of 44 countries 1982-2000, this paper provides a panel data analysis to determine the most effective borrow...

Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies

Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2000/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451851274.001

ISBN: 9781451851274

Keywords: Leading indicators, emerging markets, stock returns, stock market, correlation, stock price, statistics

This paper studies the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns in a panel of emerging market economies and advanced economies. It finds that the correlation is as strong in emerging market econom...