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Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses »

Volume/Issue: 2015/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vivek Ghosal , and Yang Ye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552515.001

ISBN: 9781475552515

Keywords: uncertainty, small businesses, real-options, financing-constraints, costs, gdp, forecasting, variables, investment, General

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growt...

Information Rigidities
			: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Information Rigidities : Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel »

Volume/Issue: 2014/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484305201.001

ISBN: 9781484305201

Keywords: Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, Forecasting and Simulation,

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is s...

Taxation and Corporate Debt
			: Are Banks any Different?

Taxation and Corporate Debt : Are Banks any Different? »

Volume/Issue: 2013/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jost Heckemeyer , and Ruud A. Mooij

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 October 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484330340.001

ISBN: 9781484330340

Keywords: Corporate tax, debt bias, leverage, non-financial firms, quantile regressions, bank size, capital structure, banking, tax sensitivity, tax elasticity

This paper explores whether corporate tax bias toward debt finance differs between banks and nonbanks, using a large panel of micro data. On average, it finds that there is no significant difference. The marginal t...

Structural Reforms and Regional Convergence

Structural Reforms and Regional Convergence »

Volume/Issue: 2012/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antonio Spilimbergo , and Natasha Che

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475503272.001

ISBN: 9781475503272

Keywords: Structural reforms, regional convergence, equation, wage, minimum wage, severance payment, statistics, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Economic Development: Regional, Urban

Which structural reforms affect the speed the regional convergence within a country? We found that domestic financial development, trade/current account openness, better institutional infrastructure, and selected l...

Russian Federation
			: Technical Note on Stress Testing of the Banking Sector

Russian Federation : Technical Note on Stress Testing of the Banking Sector »

Volume/Issue: 2011/334

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 November 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463925901.002

ISBN: 9781463925901

Keywords: capital adequacy, banking, capital ratio, banking sector, foreign exchange

This technical note focuses on the stress testing exercise in 2010 for the financial sector assessment program based on the existing approaches of the Central Bank of Russia, as well as a separate bottom-up exercis...

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts
			: Some Cross-Country Evidence

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455263424.001

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...

Redesigning the Contours of the Future Financial System

Redesigning the Contours of the Future Financial System »

Volume/Issue: 2010/10

Series: IMF Staff Position Notes

Author(s): Laura Kodres , and Aditya Narain

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781462388882.004

ISBN: 9781462388882

Keywords: Bank supervision, Banks, Financial instruments, Financial institutions, Risk management, Multilateral surveillance, Nonbank financial sector, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Fund role, Crises

This paper explores the private- and public-sector responses to the crisis and some of the probable outcomes. Aside from improved supervision of individual institutions, greater emphasis needs to be put on financia...

Tourism Specialization and Economic Development
			: Evidence from the UNESCO World Heritage List

Tourism Specialization and Economic Development : Evidence from the UNESCO World Heritage List »

Volume/Issue: 2009/176

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): John Piotrowski , Rabah Arezki , and Reda Cherif

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873238.001

ISBN: 9781451873238

Keywords: economic development and growth and instrumental variables, unesco world heritage, heritage, world heritage,

The present paper investigates whether tourism specialization is a viable strategy for development. We estimate standard growth equations augmented with a variable measuring tourism specialization using instrumenta...

Competition in the Financial Sector
			: Overview of Competition Policies

Competition in the Financial Sector : Overview of Competition Policies »

Volume/Issue: 2009/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stijn Claessens

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871937.001

ISBN: 9781451871937

Keywords: competition policy, contestability, stability, degree of competition, General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data), General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation, Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation, Market Structure, Firm Strategy, And Market Performance

As in other sectors, competition in finance matters for allocative, productive and dynamic efficiency. Theory suggests, however, that unfettered competition is not first best given the special features of finance....

Exchange Rate Analysis in Support of IMF Surveillance
			: A Collection of Empirical Studies

Exchange Rate Analysis in Support of IMF Surveillance : A Collection of Empirical Studies »

Series: Books

Author(s): Charalambos Tsangarides , Carlo Cottarelli , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Atish Ghosh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 September 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589067288.071

ISBN: 9781589067288

Keywords: exchange rate, real exchange rate, exchange rate regime, exchange rates, exchange rate regimes

Exchange rate analysis lies at the center of the IMF's surveillance mandate and policy advice, as well as in the design of IMF-supported programs, and IMF staff are called upon to analyze a wide variety of exchange...