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Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses »

Volume/Issue: 2015/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vivek Ghosal , and Yang Ye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552515.001

ISBN: 9781475552515

Keywords: uncertainty, small businesses, real-options, financing-constraints, costs, gdp, forecasting, variables, investment, General

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growt...

Information Rigidities
			: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Information Rigidities : Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel »

Volume/Issue: 2014/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484305201.001

ISBN: 9781484305201

Keywords: Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, Forecasting and Simulation,

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is s...

International Reserves-Too Much of a Zipf's Thing

International Reserves-Too Much of a Zipf's Thing »

Volume/Issue: 2008/11

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mariusz Sumlinski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451868739.001

ISBN: 9781451868739

Keywords: Gibrat&;amp;#x2019;s law, Zipf&;amp;#x2019;s law, statistics, samples, reserve holdings, reserve accumulation

Concentrated distribution of international reserves is puzzling. I show that the growth rates of international reserves bear only a very weak relationship to their initial stocks (scaled by GDP or in absolute terms...

Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies

Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2000/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451851274.001

ISBN: 9781451851274

Keywords: Leading indicators, emerging markets, stock returns, stock market, correlation, stock price, statistics

This paper studies the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns in a panel of emerging market economies and advanced economies. It finds that the correlation is as strong in emerging market econom...