Information Rigidities : Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel »
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 12 February 2014
Keywords: Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, Forecasting and Simulation,
We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is s...