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Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses »

Volume/Issue: 2015/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vivek Ghosal , and Yang Ye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552515.001

ISBN: 9781475552515

Keywords: uncertainty, small businesses, real-options, financing-constraints, costs, gdp, forecasting, variables, investment, General

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growt...

How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments

How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments »

Volume/Issue: 2014/179

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julio Escolano , Laura Jaramillo , Carlos Mulas-Granados , and G. Terrier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484378861.001

ISBN: 9781484378861

Keywords: Deficit, primary balance, size of adjustment, fiscal adjustments, fiscal consolidations, Structure and Scope of Government,

The sizeable fiscal consolidation required to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratios in several countries in the aftermath of the global crisis raises a crucial question on its feasibility. To answer this question, we re...

Information Rigidities
			: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Information Rigidities : Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel »

Volume/Issue: 2014/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484305201.001

ISBN: 9781484305201

Keywords: Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, Forecasting and Simulation,

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is s...

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information »

Volume/Issue: 2012/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Wu , and Michele Cavallo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463931810.001

ISBN: 9781463931810

Keywords: Oil Shocks, Market-Based Information, VAR Identification, oil market, opec, equation, oil demand, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating

We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then...

Treasury Single Account
			: An Essential Tool for Government Cash Management

Treasury Single Account : An Essential Tool for Government Cash Management »

Volume: 11

Series: Technical Notes and Manuals

Author(s): Israel Fainboim Yaker , and Sailendra Pattanayak

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 October 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475504699.005

ISBN: 9781475504699

Keywords: treasury single account, TSA, banking arrangement, bank accounts, cash management, liquidity management, treasury management, transaction processing, public financial management, bank

This technical note and manual addresses the following main issues: 1. Discusses the problems of fragmented government banking arrangements and how a treasury single account (TSA) could address them. 2. Explain...

Redesigning the Contours of the Future Financial System

Redesigning the Contours of the Future Financial System »

Volume/Issue: 2010/10

Series: IMF Staff Position Notes

Author(s): Laura Kodres , and Aditya Narain

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781462388882.004

ISBN: 9781462388882

Keywords: Bank supervision, Banks, Financial instruments, Financial institutions, Risk management, Multilateral surveillance, Nonbank financial sector, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Fund role, Crises

This paper explores the private- and public-sector responses to the crisis and some of the probable outcomes. Aside from improved supervision of individual institutions, greater emphasis needs to be put on financia...

Trade and the Crisis
			: Protect or Recover

Trade and the Crisis : Protect or Recover »

Volume/Issue: 2010/07

Series: IMF Staff Position Notes

Author(s): Mika Saito , Christian Henn , Rob Gregory , and Brad McDonald

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 April 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455251216.004

ISBN: 9781455251216

Keywords: Protectionism, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Trade restrictions, Trade policy, Unemployment, World Trade Organization, Transparency, WTO, trade flows, world trade

The pace of trade reforms waned from the mid-2000s as protectionist sentiment began to increase. With the onset of the global financial crisis, reform progress not only halted but began to reverse. As we show in th...

Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy

Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2010/03

Series: IMF Staff Position Notes

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , Giovanni Dell'Ariccia , and Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455224982.004

ISBN: 9781455224982

Keywords: Bank credit, Bank regulations, Bank supervision, Central bank role, Economic policy, Economic stabilization, Financial crisis, Financial intermediation, Fiscal policy, Inflation targeting

The great moderation lulled macroeconomists and policymakers alike in the belief that we knew how to conduct macroeconomic policy. The crisis clearly forces us to question that assessment. In this paper, we review...

The Challenge of Enforcement in Securities Markets
			: Mission Impossible?

The Challenge of Enforcement in Securities Markets : Mission Impossible? »

Volume/Issue: 2009/168

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ana Carvajal , and Jennifer Elliott

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873153.001

ISBN: 9781451873153

Keywords: court, securities regulation, court order, securities regulators, courts, Enforcement,

Weaknesses in the enforcement of regulation have been targeted by the G-20 as a priority concern for reform. But enforcement efforts in securities markets have proven difficult and uneven. The recent scandal in the...

Technology and Finance

Technology and Finance »

Volume/Issue: 2008/182

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anna Ilyina , and Roberto Samaniego

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870404.001

ISBN: 9781451870404

Keywords: Technology, financial development, external finance dependence, industry growth, R&;amp;#x0026;D intensity, investment lumpiness, r &;amp; d, correlations, r &;amp; d intensity, standard errors

The benefits from financial development are known to vary across industries. However, no systematic effort has been made to determine the technological characteristics that are shared by industries that tend to gro...