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Slowdown in Emerging Markets
			: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?

Slowdown in Emerging Markets : Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evridiki Tsounta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 November 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498304719.001

ISBN: 9781498304719

Keywords: potential growth, emerging market economies, growth, growth rate, capital, tfp, labor, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

Following very strong growth during the period 2000-12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performa...

Growth
			: Now and Forever?

Growth : Now and Forever? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/117

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giang Ho , and Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498309820.001

ISBN: 9781498309820

Keywords: growth forecast, optimism bias, forecast horizon, economic growth, growth forecasts, growth rates, growth rate, economic growth forecasts,

Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Ba...

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns »

Volume/Issue: 2014/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Oumar Diallo , and Sampawende Tapsoba

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484306598.001

ISBN: 9781484306598

Keywords: Business Cycle Synchronicity, and the BRICs., trade intensity, trading partners, industry trade, impact of trade, General,

This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA's business cycle has not only moved in the same...

Potential Growth in Emerging Asia

Potential Growth in Emerging Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2014/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , Kevin Cheng , Sidra Rehman , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 January 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484345726.001

ISBN: 9781484345726

Keywords: potential growth, emerging Asia, tfp, unemployment, growth rate, growth accounting, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

Using three distinct approaches-statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model- this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philipp...

Inclusive Growth
			: Measurement and Determinants

Inclusive Growth : Measurement and Determinants »

Volume/Issue: 2013/135

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , Saurabh Mishra , and Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484323212.001

ISBN: 9781484323212

Keywords: pro-poor growth, distribution, equity, inequality, social mobility, pro-poor, distribution of income, welfare function, Justice, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

We estimate a unified measure of inclusive growth for emerging markets by integrating their economic growth performance and income distribution outcomes, using data over three decades. Country distributions are cal...

Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies

Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2013/120

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rudrani Bhattacharya , and Ila Patnaik

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325988.001

ISBN: 9781484325988

Keywords: Macroeconomics, real business cycles, emerging market business cycle stylized facts, financial development, consumption volatility, total consumption, business cycle, business cycles, growth rate, General

How does access to credit impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that greater household access to finance smooths consumption. Evidence from emerging markets, where cons...

Accelerating And Sustaining Growth
			: Economic and Political Lessons

Accelerating And Sustaining Growth : Economic and Political Lessons »

Volume/Issue: 2012/185

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Arvind Virmani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505337.001

ISBN: 9781475505337

Keywords: High Growth Economies, Policy Reforms, Timing and Phasing., import liberalization, competitive pressure, external shocks, per capita income, per capita growth rate, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

The paper reviews and draws lessons from the experience of fast growing economies including a sub-set of these termed High Growth Economies (HGEs) with a decadal rate of over 7 per cent. It then reviews the history...

Does the Business Environment Affect Corporate Investment in India?

Does the Business Environment Affect Corporate Investment in India? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/70

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kiichi Tokuoka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463939069.001

ISBN: 9781463939069

Keywords: Business environment, Costs of doing business, inflation, gdp growth, inflation rate, real gdp, real interest rate, Asia and Pacific Department, Production and Organizations: General,

Since the global financial crisis, corporate investment has been weak in India. Sluggish corporate investment would not only moderate growth from the demand side but also constrain growth from the supply side over...

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries
			: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries : Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2012/49

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Raphael Espinoza , and Sarwat Jahan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463937102.001

ISBN: 9781463937102

Keywords: Growth Spillovers, Low-Income Countries, Decoupling, Panel Estimate, real gdp, gdp growth, commodity prices, commodity exporters, Economic Growth of Open Economies,

This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flo...

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time »

Volume/Issue: 2011/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455218998.001

ISBN: 9781455218998

Keywords: Nowcasting, Short-term forecasting, Real-time data, gdp growth, forecasting, real gdp, equation, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle...