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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019, Sub-Saharan Africa

Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty

The economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to continue, but at a slower pace than envisaged in October 2018.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2019

Vulnerabilities in a Maturing Credit Cycle

The April 2019 GFSR finds that despite significant variability over the past two quarters, financial conditions remain accommodative.

Uncertainty and Unemployment
			: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels

Uncertainty and Unemployment : The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels »

Volume/Issue: 2015/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sangyup Choi , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 February 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498356305.001

ISBN: 9781498356305

Keywords: aggregate uncertainty, sectoral uncertainty, stock market, Great Recession, unemployment rate, labor, labor market, long-term unemployment, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we...

Central Counterparties
			: Addressing their Too Important to Fail Nature

Central Counterparties : Addressing their Too Important to Fail Nature »

Volume/Issue: 2015/21

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Froukelien Wendt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475572933.001

ISBN: 9781475572933

Keywords: central counterparties, interdependencies, too important to fail, recovery and resolution, risk waterfall, markets, market, default, liquidity, Government Policy and Regulation

Central counterparties (CCPs) can offer significant benefits to a market. However, CCPs are also highly interconnected with financial institutions and markets and therefore too important to fail. The increased volu...

The Effects of U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asia Frontier Developing Economies

The Effects of U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asia Frontier Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2015/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sohrab Rafiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498334037.001

ISBN: 9781498334037

Keywords: unconventional monetary policy, interest rates, exchange rate, international monetary fund, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics,

This paper explores the effect of U.S. unconventional monetary policy (QE2) on a group of frontier developing economies (FDEs) in Asia. This paper finds that spillovers emanating from the U.S. on FDEs in Asia have...

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses »

Volume/Issue: 2015/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vivek Ghosal , and Yang Ye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552515.001

ISBN: 9781475552515

Keywords: uncertainty, small businesses, real-options, financing-constraints, costs, gdp, forecasting, variables, investment, General

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growt...

The Size Distribution of Manufacturing Plants and Development

The Size Distribution of Manufacturing Plants and Development »

Volume/Issue: 2014/236

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Siddharth Kothari

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498334396.001

ISBN: 9781498334396

Keywords: size distribution, non-homothetic preferences, quality, goods, income, distribution, prices, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Asia including Middle East,

The typical size distribution of manufacturing plants in developing countries has a thick left tail compared to developed countries. The same holds across Indian states, with richer states having a much smaller sha...

Corporate Vulnerabilities in India and Banks' Loan Performance

Corporate Vulnerabilities in India and Banks' Loan Performance »

Volume/Issue: 2014/232

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Peter Lindner , and Sung Eun Jung

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498334235.001

ISBN: 9781498334235

Keywords: firm resilience, bank-corporate dependencies, leverage, corporate performance, debt, share, loan, market, Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis, General

The financial performance of India's corporate sector has been under pressure since the Global Financial Crisis. Balance-sheet data on a large cross-section of Indian non-financial corporates show that the growth i...

Does Inflation Slow Long-Run Growth in India?

Does Inflation Slow Long-Run Growth in India? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/222

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 December 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498399982.001

ISBN: 9781498399982

Keywords: growth, threshold effects, cross-sectional heterogeneity, dependence, inflation rate, economics, money, Models with Panel Data, General, cross-sectional heterogeneity and dependence.,

This paper examines the long-run relationship between consumer price index industrial workers (CPI-IW) inflation and GDP growth in India. We collect data on a sample of 14 Indian states over the period 1989-2013, a...

Slowdown in Emerging Markets
			: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?

Slowdown in Emerging Markets : Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evridiki Tsounta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 November 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498304719.001

ISBN: 9781498304719

Keywords: potential growth, emerging market economies, growth, growth rate, capital, tfp, labor, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

Following very strong growth during the period 2000-12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performa...

Emerging Market Volatility
			: Lessons from The Taper Tantrum

Emerging Market Volatility : Lessons from The Taper Tantrum »

Volume/Issue: 2014/9

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , Vivek Arora , Athanasios Arvanitis , Hamid Faruqee , Papa N'Diaye , and Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318204.006

ISBN: 9781498318204

Keywords: Monetary policy, Emerging markets, United States, Capital flows, Financial markets, Capital market volatility, Macroprudential Policy, Developed countries, Tapering, unconventional monetary policy

Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discusse...

Volatilidad en los mercados emergentes
			: Lecciones de mayo de 2013

Volatilidad en los mercados emergentes : Lecciones de mayo de 2013 »

Volume/Issue: 2014/9

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , Vivek Arora , Athanasios Arvanitis , Hamid Faruqee , Papa N'Diaye , and Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2014

Language: Spanish

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513534459.006

ISBN: 9781513534459

Keywords: Mercados emergentes, volatilidad de los mercados de capital internacionales, flujos de capital, política monetaria, política macroprudencial, Estados Unidos, países desarrollados

Las políticas monetarias acomodaticias de las economías avanzadas han estimulado la entrada de capitales en los mercados emergentes desde la crisis financiera internacional. En un episodio que comenzó en mayo de 20...