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Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses »

Volume/Issue: 2015/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vivek Ghosal , and Yang Ye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552515.001

ISBN: 9781475552515

Keywords: uncertainty, small businesses, real-options, financing-constraints, costs, gdp, forecasting, variables, investment, General

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growt...

The Size Distribution of Manufacturing Plants and Development

The Size Distribution of Manufacturing Plants and Development »

Volume/Issue: 2014/236

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Siddharth Kothari

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498334396.001

ISBN: 9781498334396

Keywords: size distribution, non-homothetic preferences, quality, goods, income, distribution, prices, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Asia including Middle East,

The typical size distribution of manufacturing plants in developing countries has a thick left tail compared to developed countries. The same holds across Indian states, with richer states having a much smaller sha...

Corporate Vulnerabilities in India and Banks' Loan Performance

Corporate Vulnerabilities in India and Banks' Loan Performance »

Volume/Issue: 2014/232

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Peter Lindner , and Sung Eun Jung

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498334235.001

ISBN: 9781498334235

Keywords: firm resilience, bank-corporate dependencies, leverage, corporate performance, debt, share, loan, market, Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis, General

The financial performance of India's corporate sector has been under pressure since the Global Financial Crisis. Balance-sheet data on a large cross-section of Indian non-financial corporates show that the growth i...

Does Inflation Slow Long-Run Growth in India?

Does Inflation Slow Long-Run Growth in India? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/222

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 December 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498399982.001

ISBN: 9781498399982

Keywords: growth, threshold effects, cross-sectional heterogeneity, dependence, inflation rate, economics, money, Models with Panel Data, General, cross-sectional heterogeneity and dependence.,

This paper examines the long-run relationship between consumer price index industrial workers (CPI-IW) inflation and GDP growth in India. We collect data on a sample of 14 Indian states over the period 1989-2013, a...

Slowdown in Emerging Markets
			: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?

Slowdown in Emerging Markets : Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evridiki Tsounta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 November 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498304719.001

ISBN: 9781498304719

Keywords: potential growth, emerging market economies, growth, growth rate, capital, tfp, labor, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

Following very strong growth during the period 2000-12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performa...

Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2014

Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2014 »

Series: Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498304092.012

ISBN: 9781498304092

Keywords: exchange arrangements, capital flows, exchange rates

This is the 65th issue of the AREAER. It provides a description of the foreign exchange arrangements, exchange and trade systems, and capital controls of all IMF member countries. It also provides information on th...

Emerging Market Volatility
			: Lessons from The Taper Tantrum

Emerging Market Volatility : Lessons from The Taper Tantrum »

Volume/Issue: 2014/9

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , Vivek Arora , Athanasios Arvanitis , Hamid Faruqee , Papa N'Diaye , and Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318204.006

ISBN: 9781498318204

Keywords: Monetary policy, Emerging markets, United States, Capital flows, Financial markets, Capital market volatility, Macroprudential Policy, Developed countries, Tapering, unconventional monetary policy

Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discusse...

Volatilidad en los mercados emergentes
			: Lecciones de mayo de 2013

Volatilidad en los mercados emergentes : Lecciones de mayo de 2013 »

Volume/Issue: 2014/9

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , Vivek Arora , Athanasios Arvanitis , Hamid Faruqee , Papa N'Diaye , and Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2014

Language: Spanish

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513534459.006

ISBN: 9781513534459

Keywords: Mercados emergentes, volatilidad de los mercados de capital internacionales, flujos de capital, política monetaria, política macroprudencial, Estados Unidos, países desarrollados

Las políticas monetarias acomodaticias de las economías avanzadas han estimulado la entrada de capitales en los mercados emergentes desde la crisis financiera internacional. En un episodio que comenzó en mayo de 20...

How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments

How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments »

Volume/Issue: 2014/179

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julio Escolano , Laura Jaramillo , Carlos Mulas-Granados , and G. Terrier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484378861.001

ISBN: 9781484378861

Keywords: Deficit, primary balance, size of adjustment, fiscal adjustments, fiscal consolidations, Structure and Scope of Government,

The sizeable fiscal consolidation required to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratios in several countries in the aftermath of the global crisis raises a crucial question on its feasibility. To answer this question, we re...

Food Inflation in India
			: The Role for Monetary Policy

Food Inflation in India : The Role for Monetary Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2014/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , Ding Ding , and Volodymyr Tulin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484392096.001

ISBN: 9781484392096

Keywords: food inflation, monetary fund, inflation dynamics, real interest rate, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Forecasting and Simulation, Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development,

Indian food and fuel inflation has remained high for several years, and second-round effects on core inflation are estimated to be large. This paper estimates the size of second-round effects using an estimated red...