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Growth

Growth »

Source: Growth : Now and Forever?

Volume/Issue: 2014/117

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giang Ho , and Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 July 2014

ISBN: 9781498309820

Keywords: growth forecast, optimism bias, forecast horizon, economic growth, growth forecasts, growth rates, growth rate, economic growth forecasts,

Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Ba...

Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel »

Source: Information Rigidities : Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Volume/Issue: 2014/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

ISBN: 9781484305201

Keywords: Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, Forecasting and Simulation,

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is s...

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts »

Source: Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time »

Source: New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time

Volume/Issue: 2011/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

ISBN: 9781455218998

Keywords: Nowcasting, Short-term forecasting, Real-time data, gdp growth, forecasting, real gdp, equation, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle...

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in India

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in India »

Source: Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in India : An Empirical Exploration

Volume/Issue: 2010/84

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Patra , and Partha Ray

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2010

ISBN: 9781451982640

Keywords: Inflation Expectation, real interest rate, inflation forecasts, inflationary pressures,

This paper pursues a computationally intensive approach to generate future inflation, followed by an exploration of the determinants of inflation expectations by estimating a new Keynesian type Phillips curve that...

Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity

Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity »

Source: Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity : An Empirical Exercise on the Indian Economy

Volume/Issue: 2002/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rajan Goyal , and K. Kanagasabapathy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2002

ISBN: 9781451851526

Keywords: Yield curve, yield spread, leading indicators, working capital, probability, government securities, equation, forecasting, Prices, Business Fluctuations

There is growing evidence that the yield spread could serve as a leading indicator of real economic activity. This paper is an attempt to test this hypothesis for the Indian economy by relating movements in the yie...

Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart

Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart »

Source: Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart

Volume/Issue: 2009/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Prakash Kannan , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2009

ISBN: 9781451873252

Keywords: Fan Chart, Balance of Risks, Option Prices, Consensus Forecasts, risk factors, survey, skewness, normal distribution, equation,

This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the...

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses »

Source: Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses

Volume/Issue: 2015/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vivek Ghosal , and Yang Ye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2015

ISBN: 9781475552515

Keywords: uncertainty, small businesses, real-options, financing-constraints, costs, gdp, forecasting, variables, investment, General

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growt...

Food Inflation in India

Food Inflation in India »

Source: Food Inflation in India : The Role for Monetary Policy

Volume/Issue: 2014/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , Ding Ding , and Volodymyr Tulin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 September 2014

ISBN: 9781484392096

Keywords: food inflation, monetary fund, inflation dynamics, real interest rate, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Forecasting and Simulation, Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development,

Indian food and fuel inflation has remained high for several years, and second-round effects on core inflation are estimated to be large. This paper estimates the size of second-round effects using an estimated red...

Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage

Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage »

Source: Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage : Are there Growth Spillovers?

Volume/Issue: 2011/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Issouf Samaké , and Yongzheng Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463924669

Keywords: low-income countries, BRICs, Global VAR, Structural VAR, exporters, commodity prices, oil exporters, commodity exporters, oil prices, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Trade and financial ties between low-income countries (LICs) and Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs) have expanded rapidly in recent years. This gives rise to the potential for growth to spill over from the la...